The effect of opening up ANWR to drilling on the current price of oil

The Effect of Opening up ANWR to Drilling on the Current Price of Oil R. Morris Coats and Gary M. PecquetEveryone knows that oil discovered today, perhaps in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), has no effect on prices until that oil hits the market. For instance, on its website, the Democratic Policy Committee, (http://democrats.senate.gov/~dpc/pubs/107-1-72.html) states that “it will require seven to twelve years from approval before there is any oil production from the ANWR area. Therefore, production in ANWR will have no impact on current or short-term gasoline and oil supplies and prices.” While this is something that everyone seems to know, it is a case that the theory held by everyone just happens to be wrong. Since future prices are expected to be lower, future profits are also lower, so the value of oil not produced now, but held for future sales, is lower, making it more profitable to go ahead and produce and sell now instead of waiting for future profits. Using oil now reduces the amount of oil available for the future, which involves the opportunity cost of forgone future profits, which are sometime called the marginal user costs or scarcity rents. In this paper, we use simple two-period models to show that if an amount of newly discovered oil is significant enough to reduce prices in the future, any drop in future prices reduces the future profitability of oil, reducing the marginal user costs of oil now. That reduction in the marginal user costs reduces the current price of oil just as if there were a reduction in the marginal costs of extracting oil now. We explore the effects of the reduction in marginal user costs in the competitive or price-taker case as well as the price-searcher case, where a monopolist or dominant supplier responds to a substantial discovery by another seller, but where the discovery will not contribute to production for some years to come. In both cases, we find that oil that is expected to reach the market at some time in the future has an immediate impact on oil prices. Topic Area: Q4 EnergyANWR; resource discovery; timing of price impact; speculation

Structure-Function Studies of the cAMP-Dependent Protein Kinase \u3ci\u3eIn Vitro\u3c/i\u3e and in Intact Cells

There are 518 protein kinase genes in the human genome; this constitutes about 1.7% of all human genes. The cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) serves as the prototypic model for the study of kinases because it contains a conserved catalytic core shared with all eukaryotic kinases, it is the simplest kinase, and it is one of the best-characterized serine/threonine kinases. PKA is ubiquitous in mammals and regulates multiple physiological mechanisms such as the cell cycle, apoptosis, cell motility, energy metabolism, and gene transcription through a well-defined intracellular signaling pathway. While PKA clearly has a central physiological role it is still unclear how PKA mediates multiple physiological mechanisms at the cellular level. Four approaches were used to explore this question using two PKA catalytic subunits, Cα and Cγ, which share 83% identity in primary structure but differ in function. The first approach sought to identify differences in primary structure between Cγ and Cα, which may define functional differences between them. To this end chimeras were generated, swapping the carboxyl and amino termini between Cα and Cγ and were evaluated for functionality through CREB-mediated reporter assays. Wild type Cα and Cγ induced CREB-mediated transcriptional activation, but the chimeras failed to exhibit any activity. The second approach sought to characterize phosphorylation differences between purified PKA-Cγ and PKA-Cα that defines their physiological function. Two novel phosphorylation sites were identified on both isoforms by tandem mass spectrometry analysis (Cγ S14 and Cα/Cγ S259). It was also determined that Cγ expressed in Sf9 insect cells, like Cα expressed in mammalian cells, is phosphorylated at T197 and S338 and the modification at T197 is important to the function of both isoforms. The third approach sought to characterize the kinetic mechanism of PKA-Cγ through determination of the rate for the reaction-limiting step, which was found to be 9-times slower than that of Cα. The final approach sought to identify Cγ expression in the cell through the use of a new Cγ-specific antibody. Cγ expression was identified following differentiation of U-937 cells suggesting a novel function for Cγ in the cell

Application of the Traditional Epidemiological Model to Predict Occupational Injury Rates in Manufacturing Industries

This study was designed to test the usefulness of the Traditional Epidemiological Model of disease causation in modeling occupational injury rates and the presence of occupational illness in the manufacturing industry. More specifically, this research involved use of the agent, host, and environment constructs of the Traditional Epidemiological Model to examine the effects of five environmental-related workplace health and safety practices on occupational injury and illness. Data from the National Occupational Exposure Survey (NOES), conducted by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in 1981–1983, were used to ascertain the presence of specific workplace characteristics and to calculate occupational injury rates and illness presence in the manufacturing establishments included in the sample. Linear and logistic regression models were used in analyses of the relationships between the agent, host, and environmental factors and the health outcomes of the study. Findings of this study suggest that implementation of certain environment-related health and safety workplace practices, including the presence of occupational health professionals and labor unions, aid in lowering risk of occupational injury and illness occurrence in manufacturing establishments. Several host characteristics, including a greater percentage of female employees in the workforce, larger company sizes, and geographical location of establishments, were also found to have positive relationships to occupational injury and illness occurrence in the manufacturing industry. Although the Traditional Epidemiological Model was not found to be appropriate for use in this research study, its application may be effective in future occupational health research related to direct causes of specific occupational diseases. This model would be useful in future research involving the identification of causal relationships or the presence of specific injuries or illnesses, rather than in examining overall injury or illness rates. Information gained in this study may be used to funnel resources into the areas of greatest need and to make decisions regarding funding for programs and services that are most likely to reduce workplace injury and illness. Changes in the work environment and technological advances have made it necessary for continuous evaluation of current employer health and safety practices and the development of new prevention strategies

Potential impact of subsonic and supersonic aircraft exhaust on water vapor in the lower stratosphere assessed via a trajectory model

We employ a trajectory model to assess the impact on the stratosphere of water vapor present in the exhaust of subsonic and a proposed fleet of supersonic aircraft. Air parcels into which water vapor from aircraft exhaust has been injected are run through a 6-year simulation in the trajectory model using meteorological data from the UKMO analyses with emissions dictated by the standard 2015 emissions scenario. For the subsonic aircraft, our results suggest maximum enhancements of ~150 ppbv just above the Northern Hemisphere tropopause and of much less than 50 ppbv in most other regions. Inserting the perturbed water vapor profiles into a radiative transfer model, but not considering the impact of additional cirrus formation resulting from emissions by subsonic aircraft, we find that the impact of subsonic water vapor emissions on the radiative balance is negligible. For the supersonic case, our results show maximum enhancements of ~1.5 ppmv in the tropical stratosphere near 20 km. Much of the remaining stratosphere between 12 and 25 km sees enhancements of greater than 0.1 ppmv, although enhancements above 35 km are generally less than 50 ppbv, in contrast to previous 2-D and 3-D model studies. Radiative calculations based upon these projected water vapor perturbations indicate they may cause a nonnegligible impact on tropical temperature profiles. Since our trajectory model includes no chemistry and our radiative calculations use the most extreme water vapor perturbations, our results should be viewed as upper limits on the potential impacts

Abductive Reasoning in Multiple Fault Diagnosis

Abductive reasoning involves generating an explanation for a given set of observations about the world. Abduction provides a good reasoning framework for many AI problems, including diagnosis, plan recognition and learning. This paper focuses on the use of abductive reasoning in diagnostic systems in which there may be more than one underlying cause for the observed symptoms. In exploring this topic, we will review and compare several different approaches, including Binary Choice Bayesian, Sequential Bayesian, Causal Model Based Abduction, Parsimonious Set Covering, and the use of First Order Logic. Throughout the paper we will use as an example a simple diagnostic problem involving automotive troubleshooting

Source attribution of ozone in Southeast Texas before and after the Deepwater Horizon accident using satellite, sonde, surface monitor, and air mass trajectory data

Since the summer of 2004, over 300 ozonesondes have been launched from Rice University (29.7 N, 95.4 W) or the University of Houston (29.7 N, 95.3 W), each \u3c 5 km from downtown Houston. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality maintains a large database of hourly surface ozone observations in Southeast Texas. In this study, we identify the contributions to surface ozone pollution levels from natural and anthropogenic sources, both local and remote in nature. This source identification is performed two ways: 1) through an analysis of sonde data, including ozone concentrations, wind speed and direction, and relative humidity data, and 2) through an analysis that combines trajectory calculations with surface monitor data. We also examine regional changes in Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements of formaldehyde and ozone from 2004 – 2010. In particular, we compare the 2010 sonde, surface monitor, and satellite data after the Deepwater Horizon accident with data from previous years to determine the impact, if any, of the large source of hydrocarbons in the Gulf of Mexico on air quality in Southeast Texas

Analysis of Wine for Penicillin

This study addresses the question of whether the antibiotic Penicillin, which is produced by the common mold Penicillium notatum, could possibly become a contaminate of wine during the fermentation process. The significance of this study is related to the potential health effects this agent might produce in those consumers who have an allergic response to Penicillin. It has been estimated that between 6% and 8% of the American population is subject to this type of allergic response. A method is developed for the detection of penicillin in wines using high-pressure liquid chromatography. We demonstrate that penicillin G hydrolyzes rapidly in wine with first-order kinetics, and the half-life of this antibiotic is 147 min in a typical commercial wine. An analysis of a number of commercial wines shows no evidence of the presence of penicillin, which should negate the question of any allergic response associated with this potential contaminate